Aviation Week sees business aviation fleet growing to 41,136 aircraft by 2036

Aviation Week’s new 10-year forecast projects the global turbine-powered business aviation fleet will rise 12% by 2036, while business aviation MRO demand climbs to $173 billion. The report says Textron will lead unit deliveries, while Gulfstream and Bombardier will capture more value per aircraft.

Why it matters: - The forecast points to steady demand across business aviation, even as growth varies by aircraft class. - MRO demand is rising alongside the fleet, signaling sustained work for maintenance providers, engine makers and suppliers. - The report also suggests value is concentrating in higher-end aircraft, even when another manufacturer leads in unit volume.

What happened: - Aviation Week released its 2027 Business Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, a 10-year outlook for the business aviation and MRO markets. - The forecast projects the worldwide turbine-powered business aviation fleet will grow from 36,643 aircraft in 2027 to 41,136 aircraft in 2036. - That change equals a 12% increase, or a 1.3% compound annual growth rate. - Aviation Week also released its 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, Helicopter Fleet & MRO Forecast and Military Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast. - More information is available at Aviation Week’s fleet forecast page.

The details: - Jet fleets are expected to post the biggest gains over the forecast period. - Business turboprops grow more slowly overall. - Single-engine turboprop models are replacing multi-engine aircraft at a 3.9% CAGR. - The overall turbine-powered jet fleet grows at a 1.6% CAGR. - Super Mid-Size, Ultra Long Range and Very Light Jet categories each show growth rates as high as 5% CAGR over 10 years. - Business aircraft MRO demand is projected to grow at a 3.2% CAGR and reach $173 billion. - Modification work makes up 32% of total MRO demand and grows at a 2.5% CAGR. - Engine maintenance accounts for 28% of MRO demand and is taking a larger share of business aviation maintenance needs. - New business aircraft delivery values are projected to reach $304 billion at retail pricing over the next 10 years. - Textron’s Cessna and Beechcraft lines are projected to lead unit deliveries by a wide margin, at just over 3,000 aircraft. - Gulfstream and Bombardier are projected to rank higher in total delivery value than Textron because of aircraft pricing. - Business jets account for more than 9,600 deliveries over the 10-year period. - Turboprops account for about 2,600 deliveries over the same period. - About 7,200 aircraft are expected to retire over the 10-year period. - Aircraft deliveries are expected to reach the 1,200-unit mark annually from 2028 through 2035.

Between the lines: - The forecast suggests the market is being supported by both new model launches and demand for established product families. - Unmet demand has pushed OEM backlogs higher and spilled into the pre-owned market. - Fractional operators remain the fastest-growing customer segment, alongside corporate and private operators. - The nearly 2:1 delivery-to-retirement ratio points to a fleet that is still expanding faster than it is aging out. - Brian Kough, senior director of forecasts and aerospace insights, said capacity constraints remain a concern across MRO, provider availability and supply chains. - Kough also said engine OEMs and other suppliers should see steady demand as new deliveries rise and the legacy fleet expands.

What's next: - Aviation Week expects new aircraft deliveries to rise by a couple hundred units in the near term. - Retirement levels are expected to stay muted, extending the imbalance between deliveries and retirements. - The forecast implies continued pressure on maintenance capacity as more aircraft enter service and the installed base grows. - Aviation Week is offering the forecast for subscribers and interested customers through its sales contact listed in the release.